Track it

Matthew Carroll (Carroll.org.uk) tracks the CIC's historical performance according to the fluctuating estimates and averages provided by the CIC itself. I note with a sneer that times for "Sponsor - spouse" are up slightly, but the fact that 'PR - spouse' has decreased by a good four months since we talked to that nice immigration lawyer in January.

Trakitt.com takes a spreadsheet approach, with pages for immi to Canada, the US, UK, and India, divided by application class. The family class page for a country lists all cases according to date and shows the office and all the major milestone dates from application to approval, which makes it easy to compare your case with others from the same office, and count on your fingers and toes how long it took them to get through. It also gives examples of standard documents such as the AOR letter, which the friendly CIC woman told me that we wouldn't be receiving on an inland. Note there is not a single member of Finnish nationality listed on the page.

Based on trakkit, estimated times on the CIC site seem to be relatively accurate, though not astounding by any stretch. A sample case of an American applying through Vegreville April 26 had his/her sponsorship approved Nov 7, with the landing interview scheduled for Nov 27. That's seven months on the nose, door to door. At the time the sponsor was approved, the AIP would also have come, and so at that time the open work permit could be granted (apparently you can also send the OWP application in ahead of time, so it can - theoretically - be processed at the same time. Otherwise it can also take a while.). So while times from app to sponsorship approval are much faster say, through the Buffalo office (which, along with Vegreville, seems to take a larger share of applications), those people have to wait another five to six months afterward, so it all works out about the same in the end.